Today we have a nice 7-game MLB slate with plenty of top options to build around. First pitch and lock will be at 7:05pm eastern, so let’s dive in and find our value.
Weather
Per Rotogrinders‘ Kevin Roth, there is one rough spot in Kansas City. Keep an eye on these as we draw nearer to lock.
Pitching
Freddy Peralta, MIL $8900 – Per the usual, Freddy Peralta’s value hinges on his first inning. Freddy doesn’t normally work too deep into games, but makes up for it with the highest K/9 on the slate at just over 12 K/9. This Cincinnati team is historically bad, with only 3 wins on the season, with an abysmally low run differential. I’m expecting low run totals and high strikeouts from Fastball Freddy in this one. Lock him in.
Lucas Giolito, CHW $9500 – The lowest implied runs against total belongs to Giolito and the White Sox today. Pair that with the fact the Cubs have the highest K% vs. RHP on the slate, at 25% against a slate average of 21%, and we have a recipe for high value. He’s likely to be chalky, but it will be hard to cash if 60+% of the room has him and you don’t. I’m building around the two pitchers in this article. (Side prop bet: o6.5 K for Giolito, -105 on DK Sportsbook)
Big Guns
C.J. Cron, COL $5600 – One of the hottest hitters in the Rockies extremely fun lineup right now is C.J. Cron. As of his last game out, he’s slashing .307/.354/.693 with hits in 7 of his last 9 games, including HR in his last two. His opponent, Patrick Corbin has looked rough in 4 of his 5 starts and Cron can do damage in this spot. He’s achieved 2.3 DK Points/PA against LHP between 2021-2022.
Connor Joe, COL $5700 – Sticking with the theme of Rockies beating up on Patrick Corbin, Connor Joe has been one of my favorite young players this season. His DK Points/PA vs. LHP hovers right around 2 per PA and he should be given plenty of opportunities at the top of the Rockies order today. Our models project 2.5x value for Joe in this game, which has the highest implied run total (Coors, of course).
Trea Turner, LAD $5800 – The highest Points/PA of all my targets today belong to Trea Turner. The caveat is that Turner faces Alex Wood, who on paper is a pretty tough opponent. However, Wood gave up 5 runs against Washington in his last start, so he’s plenty hittable. Turner will be at the top of the Dodgers lineup, as always and will have his shots to do damage. He’s in the middle of a cold spell, but this is the spot that can bring him back out. Great matchup for Turner.
Value Pick
Cedric Mullins, BAL $4100 – Calling Mullins a value pick feels a little funny, considering he’s the best thing going on the Orioles’ roster. But at $4100, compared to those prices mentioned above, we’re saving a little bit of salary to pay up in other spots. Mullins is facing Dylan Bundy and exhibits 2.07 DK Points/PA against RHP. You know he’ll be at the top of the order, so his potential is maximized. Consider locking him in.
Stack to Consider
Very much digging the NYY to stack today.
I’m looking especially at Judge, Rizzo, Donaldson, and Hicks. These 4 batters display over 2 DK Points/PA against LHP and as much of a fan of Yusei Kikuchi as I am, I’d be a fool to not consider the hottest team in baseball against him today.
About the Author
Billy Graves is the host of the Hit City Podcast, covering the Milwaukee Brewers and MiLB affiliates. You can also find him on the Slashers & Screamers podcast, reviewing your favorite horror films from years past and present, and on the Monday morning show Wake Up! with Wowie & The Kid. Find out more at SlasherSports.com!
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