We have a 10 game slate with some bottom of the barrel teams defending home turf and a 7:05pm EST start time. Let’s go!
About Last Night
If you followed along with yesterday’s picks, you probably cashed out. It was a great night of DFS. Pitching took care of us, with Freddy Peralta leading the charge (37.95 DK points) and Luis Severino dominating the O’s (27.1 DK points). We got monstrous value form Curt Casali (37 DK points) in his 2 home run night.
Our K Prop bet came through as well, with Yusei Kikuchi retiring 6 batters to hit his 4.5 o/u. Follow along on my Twitter account @ HitCityKid closer to first pitch for today’s K Prop.
Weather
Per Rotogrinders‘ Kevin Roth, there are a couple of wet spots on a generally dry slate. Keep an eye on KC and Chicago.
Pitching
Dylan Bundy, MIN $8500 – There is value to be found in today’s slate and one of my favorite targets will be Dylan Bundy vs. Oakland. Am I worried about it being a road game for Minnesota? No, because nobody goes to A’s games anymore. It’ll be a mild roar at worst for Bundy and co. Bundy’s K/9 sits just under 9, a humble average, but Oakland strikes out at a 26% tick vs. RHP, one of the worst rates on the slate. He’s coming off terrible back to back starts vs. a very good Rays team and a very underrated Orioles team. A bounceback is in the making for Bundy tonight.
Jose Berrios, TOR $7800 – We’re catching Berrios on a big discount after a couple of rough starts against NYY and CLE. He’s not gone fewer than 5 IP, with the exception of his first start of the season, and that’s including some touch matchups. He will get his innings against a Mariners squad who strikes out above league average against RHP. It’s a value day at pitcher for me, and I’m looking to buy big on bats, with SFG in Coors.
Slashers
Shohei Ohtani, LAA $5900 – It’s no secret The Sho has been down in numbers over the course of the season. However, there are constant flashes of what makes him special. Today, it’s all about the matchup as the Angels face Taylor Hearn and the Rangers. Hearn has improved over the season has progressed, but the last time he faced LAA, he gave up 3 runs on 6 hits and got yanked early. Ohtani’s 2.41 DK Points/PA vs. RHP is tops on the slate and I’m looking for a big night from The Sho.
Rafael Devers, BOS $5500 – The Red Sox 3B hasn’t been blanked in fantasy points since 4/23 and has scored double digits in 5 of his last 8 games. With 2.4 DK Points/PA against RHP, Astros SP Jose Urquidy will have his work cut out for him. Devers sports a .384 wOBA at this point in the season and still projects to get hotter. His xwOBA (.392) suggests he’s not getting lucky, he’s just that good. I’m locking Devers in tonight and building around him. We’ve saved on pitchers. Let’s hire the big guns.
Brandon Belt, SFG $4500 – After last night’s game, I feel like we need some Coors exposure, and no one is better than Brandon Belt. With 2.23 DK Points/PA vs. RHP, he has the splits. Chad Kuhl will attempt to defend home turf, but last time he faced SFG, they ate him up for 5 ER. Don’t let the descriptive stats fool you, Belt’s predictive stats suggest he’s due for plenty of improvement and this is the spot to start that trend. I like Brandon Belt for a bounceback game.
Unlikely Hero
Lamonte Wade, SFG $3100 – I feel like this price tag makes Wade a no-brainer. He was actived in early May from the IL and seems to be picking up where he left off in 2021. He should be leading off tonight and faces Chad Kuhl, who he’s had positive numbers against in the past. Even in Coors, $3100 feels very low considering the jumps between his current stats and his predictive stats. I know the sample size has been relatively small for 2022, but Wade gives me the confidence that he’s the value pick of this slate.
Always consider the fact that anyone can get a day off for rest or be scratched close to the game. KEEP AN EYE ON YOUR ROSTERS!
About the Author
Billy Graves is the host of the Hit City Podcast, covering the Milwaukee Brewers and MiLB affiliates. You can also find him on the Slashers & Screamers podcast, reviewing your favorite horror films from years past and present, and on the Monday morning show Wake Up! with Wowie & The Kid. Find out more at SlasherSports.com!
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