The final game in this 4-game series pits Zach Davies against Tyler Mahle. In 11 starts for Davies, around 4.5 runs per game have been scored against him and the Arizona bullpen. Surprisingly, no team in Major League Baseball has scored more in their home ballparks than the Cincinnati Reds, putting 6.2 runs on the board in Great American Ballpark.
In 12 Tyler Mahle starts, the Cincinnati Reds have allowed 6.2 runs per game with 3 of those games getting out of hand and running into double digits. The D-backs haven’t been world beaters on the road this season, but have put up 7, 14, and 0 runs in this series. While volatile, they’ve shown to be able to score runs against better pitchers than Mahle.
Best Bet
The O/U opened at 9.5 for game 4 which may feel high. However, per our models, there is a 60% chance this game yields 10 runs or more. At -120 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, we find good value in taking the over. We project both teams to score 5 runs or better just as they did in game 2. We’re taking this one to go over 9.5 runs.
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