One of the most disappointing teams of 2022 surely had to have been the Baylor Bears. Riding high off a Big 12 championship in 2021, it seemed like the squad had great momentum to keep it moving into the new season. However, that was not the case for Dave Aranda who will now enter his 4th season in 2023. Baylor Football finished the season with a 6-7 record and a disappointing bowl game loss to Air Force 30-15. This season has the potential to go either way in my opinion. Let’s break down my thoughts for the upcoming season for the folks in Waco.
We recently saw Baylor at the Big 12 media day for 2023, and there seems to be a certain amount of “Buzz” for this team to be a Dark Horse candidate. A team that could find their way into the Big 12 championship game as they did and won in 2021.
FUN FACT: 6 different teams have represented the Big 12 Football Championship Game in the last 3 years. Baylor was one of the 6 teams in the conference when they defeated Oklahoma State 21-16 in 2021.
Head Coach Dave Aranda was one of the most inspiring and unforgettable moments of Big 12 Media Day this year. He arrived in Arlington at AT&T Stadium only a few days after his father passed away. He seems to have a new approach to how he is handling certain situations which affect the culture and building of his squad.
You could tell by his delivery and sincerity the difficulty he had with the idea of bringing in transfers at expense of current players he had to “let go.” You can see from the difference in transfers into the program 2022 vs 2023. He now fully understands the necessity of doing so with the nature of today’s college football landscape. Unlike a lot of coaches, Dave Aranda is a mature leader with perspective, feeling, and priorities in things bigger than football. It’s hard not to root for a guy like that.
A big piece of the “what if’s” for me stem around the Quarterback Blake Shapen.
Is he a quarterback with at least a full season of experience returning for another season? Yes, and experience is important. It Matters. But why doesn’t that give me the warm and fuzzies like it should? It’s undeniable that having a quarterback who has already played a full season adds value to the team. Experience on the field can make a significant difference in the outcome of games. However, while experience is crucial, it’s not the only factor that matters. There are other aspects of the game that contribute to success as well. So, even though having an experienced quarterback is a positive aspect, it is important to consider other elements that contribute to the overall success of the team.
It all sits on consistency.
Blake Shapen had some great moments in 2022 for Baylor and helped them win or stay in some tight games throughout the season. Having a QB that could mostly be relied on helped keep the Bears in the hunt and not early hibernation. When Shapen is on, he is on. Last season Blake completed 63.3% of his passes, which was 5th best in program history for the Baylor Bears.
However, it wasn’t all pretty for the 6’0” 205 pound Redshirt Junior out of Shreveport, Louisiana found himself on the wrong side of decision making multiple times last season. Shapen has an issue with his footwork which he doesn’t allow himself to set and make consistent throws down the field. In 2022, this led to a few extra lobs or underthrows and 10 interceptions on the season.
Leadership was also reported to be an issue in 2022 for the young signal caller. When Shapen won the job in camp last season it seemed that he wasn’t prepared for the leadership responsibilities that came with the job of being the starting quarterback. There was definitely some emphasis on this during Big 12 Media Days earlier in the month, as Dave Aranda mentioned Shapen’s improved role as a leader multiple times during the day in Arlington. Shapen was also one of the player representatives for Baylor at Media Day as well.
There was a QB Battle in the spring (whether you believe there was or not is a different question) between Shapen and a transfer from the SEC. But ultimately, it looks like Coach Aranda is going to go to give Blake another run at the Big 12 this season.
Sawyer Robertson came in from Miss State to compete for the job. Has some fans in Waco for sure, and in some areas of the fan base he is the most popular guy in town. A decent amount of people seem to not want Shapen as the Baylor QB. I have my doubts, but experience is often overlooked. Especially in a Power 5 conference, and under an offense run by current Offensive Coordinator Jeff Grimes.
Although there will be PLENTY to pay attention to with Blake Shapen this season, I think the most exciting thing about this QB Room is Brayson McHenry. Redshirt Freshman QB, who played some fantastic football in high school in Texarkana, Texas. If we are lucky, we might see him early in the season when they face off against some of the non-conference opponents to get a real taste of what should be a hopeful future for Baylor Football.
Best RB Core in the Conference?
Assistant Head Coach / Running Backs Coach AJ Steward is going to have his hands full this season in the Bears backfield, and believe me, it’s a good thing. The running back core of 2023 for Baylor could be the team’s absolute strength on both sides of the football and could arguably be the best in the conference.
Last season, Richard Reese shined and impressed as he rushed for almost 1000 yards in his freshman campaign. Although he slowed down towards the end of the season, you could easily blame that on overuse. Reese was 19 last season, and was taking a lot of hits while trying to hold that offense together basically on his own. One plus side from Reese other than his speed, is his elusiveness. Reese forced a missed tackle on over 18% of his carries last season, we should still see a great second season from him.
But will he be the team’s number 1 in the backfield?
Oklahoma State transfer Dominic Richardson should see about just as much time in the backfield as Reese this upcoming season. Richardson was solid for the Pokes last season as he rushed 149 times for 543 yards and 8 scores. He also averaged 10 yards on 22 receptions. Richardson brings a bit more physicality to the Bears backfield and will find success on runs inside or outside the tackle.
Add Qualan Jones, Baylor’s third leading rusher last season (462 yards on 92 carries and 7 TDs) and you have one STACKED backfield.
Still a TON of Questions….
The rest of the Offensive positions pose a ton of questions for Baylor. Starting with the Receiving core, last year the production was egregious.
Monaray Baldwin, is the biggest name to return from the WR Core last season for Baylor. When he was healthy and on the field, Baldwin was playing at the caliber of a 1st team All-American. Unfortunately, we saw him off the field too much and he could not get a consistent season going.
If Baldwin stays healthy, look for him to have a BREAKOUT SEASON and gain National Media attention. That’s how special he can be.
To help revamp the core from last year’s abysmal season, WR Coach Dallas Baker and the rest of the staff brought in Arkansas Transfer Ketron Jackson Jr from the portal. Jackson had a really good spring and was a consistent playmaker with the ball in his hands. He didn’t have a huge spring game, but he was one of, if not the best, players on the team all spring. He is going to make a HUGE impact for the offense.
The Tight End group will have a huge hole to fill as they as without long time Baylor Football Ben Sims for the first time since 2017. Drake Dabney should see most of the time as the Number 1 Tight End for Baylor, but the position seems to have some potential for some really good depth.
Look for players such as transfer Jake Roberts from North Texas to make a splash in this offense. Also, Sophomore Kelsey Johnson, who showed flashes of greatness last season, especially in the heartbreaking loss to TCU last season. Johnson missed 3 games last year due to injury, a full productive season could really help bolster this core.
The Offensive line is saying goodbye to a lot of players that were award winners in some sort of fashion. From All Conference or All-American honors, this new crew will have a lot to replace for this upcoming season. Replacing last year’s offensive line that hosted a trio of sixth-year players and a left tackle who started for the Bears for four-years will be no easy task.
“You look at our young players, they’re freaky…There are a lot of guys right now that have four years of eligibility that are going to make a lot of money playing football on Sundays. I’ve been super-impressed with them. And they’ve all taken huge steps. Every single guy has had a rep where you can say, ‘Wow, that looks like an NFL player!’ So, really excited about the young talent in the room.”
Baylor OL Coach Eric MAteo on the young offensive line core heading into 2023 season.
Offensive Line Coach Eric Mateos is one of the best in the business, and will have his hands full trying to piece together this core in time for the season. The new looking O-Line will be led by not one, but two transfers from now new Big 12 conference opponent BYU.
Campbell Barrington and Clark Barrington, brothers out of Spokane, Washington both have a ton of experience after playing for the Cougars in 2022. Clark started 37 consecutive games for BYU, and Campbell earned Freshman All-American Honors as well.
The rest of the core is young. Mateos seems excited about the future of his position group however, and will need to push the leadership and expertise from him and the rest of the coaching staff to get them ready for Week 1 against Texas State.
