Slasher Sport Best Bets – UFC Fight Night: Andrei Arlovski vs. Chase Sherman

A UFC legend looking to get back to his winning ways takes on a 250 lb. gorilla in search of his 5th straight win. The heavyweights are taking it to the Octagon; you know what that means….

Tale of the Tape

“the Pitbull” Andrei ArlovskiFighterChase “The Vanilla Gorilla” Sherman
30-20Overall Record15-6
13/3/10KO/Sub/Dec14/0/1
6’4Height6’4
75 in.Reach76 in.
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
American Top TeamTeamJackson-Wink MMA
Minsk, BelarusFromMississippi, USA
HeavyweightWeight ClassHeavyweight

Path to Victory – Arlovski

What can we really say about The Pitbull that’s not been said before. We know what he brings to the table after what could be a Hall of Fame career if the UFC copied the WWE format. That’s a debate for another day. The Pitbull was one of the first Heavyweights in the UFC to look almost invincible during the height of his championship run. Today, years later, Arlovski remains a formidable opponent who, between 2016 and today, has faced a who’s who of UFC talent.

To get back into the win column, the veteran from Belarus will have to beat a fighter 11 years his junior, with a 93% KO rate. Luckily for the Pitbull, his opponent has been stopped by strikes as recently as 2018, and as often as 3 times between 2017 and 2018. Arlovski holds a significant experience advantage as well as an incomparable advantage in quality of opponents. There is very little Chase Sherman can offer that Arlovski hasn’t seen before. Andrei has won 3 of his last 5 fights, all going the distance. By digging into his much more vast wealth of experience, Arlovski can outpoint his opponent and get back on the winning track.

Path to Victory – Sherman

In his 21 pro fights, The Vanilla Gorilla has only seen the scorecards three times, win or lose. Seeing as his opponent, Andrei Arlovski, hasn’t stopped a fight since 2015, Chase Sherman can go into this fight knowing that with the proper respect to Arlovski’s potential power, he can remain a home run hit away from a KO win. Arlovski has been stopped by strikes eleven times in his career, but the last three to knock him out have been Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Frances Ngannou, and Alistair Overeem. Hardly a knock on Arlovski, those three men could knock out anyone in the division.

Quality of opponent aside, Sherman has finished his last four fights by way of the KO/TKO, in various fashion. He should aim to do the same here. Though Sherman himself has been stopped by KO/TKO a few times in his career, they were also by much more powerful punchers than Arlovski. Sherman wins this fight by staying in the pocket and throwing leather. The light switch on Arlovski’s chin has only grown over the years, and Sherman can find it with patience and a willingness to trade.

Best Bets

  • Neither fighter sees the judges scorecards very often, though Arlovski does more than Sherman. This fight won’t go that long. I see an early KO victory for one or the other, leaning Sherman. My best bet though, this fight does NOT go the distance (+100) and I’m willing to put 3u on it
  • I will be putting a half unit on each fighter to win by KO/TKO/or DQ. The reason is, I’m leaning toward Sherman getting the finish, but we can hedge that in the case Arlovski lands his shot. Sherman has KO odds of +250, while Arlovski shows +450. Amazing odds for a fight I don’t see going the distance.

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